I’ve been hearing some conflicting opinions about the future of mainframe careers. People seem to have different ideas on what the job market will be like in 10-15 years, varying from one extreme to the other.
There are those that believe the mainframe workforce is entirely healthy, and perhaps overly so – that there are plenty of young professionals out there who will be able to handle the workload once the current veterans retire in the next decade. Others feel like this profession is just like any other IT area – people are coming in at the same rate others are leaving. No over-injection of new mainframers and no shortage either. And finally, there are those who expect a shortage of knowledgeable workers will hinder the mainframe industry in the next decade.
Though I am inclined to regard the 3rd option as most likely, the other 2 possibilities deserve some thought. Are the too many new mainframers coming into this business? Will there be people who have in-depth knowledge of large systems who won’t be able to find stable jobs? Will demand for mainframers diminish as procedures and development become more automated? In short, I don’t think so. My personal experiences in college, my face-to-face conversations with high school students, recent meetings with computer science boards and large corporation leaders, and just looking down the hall here at NEON Enterprise Software, Inc.- these all lead me to fully believe that an over-populated mainframe workforce is highly unlikely.
No surplus, no shortage – this probably seems like a reasonable assessment. But anyone working for a mainframe company right now will probably agree that the average age of their mainframe staff is not getting any younger. What about all those people taking mainframe courses right now that will surely cause an influx of mainframe professionals very soon? Won’t there be enough to steadily replace those who are retiring? Good questions, but I ask you to think about the current mainframe workforce. How many years of experience do you think current mainframers have? Many of them have been working on the mainframe their entire career and have the practical and necessary bits of knowledge I would die for. Where is this indispensable expertise going to transfer to? Books and manuals are great, but nothing compares to what you can learn from working with intelligent mainframe experts. Crucial efforts are being made, but I really believe that the pipe is flushing out faster that it is filling up. It’s like a bad gas leak in your car – you can’t fill it up faster than it’s leaking so you have no choice but to pay to get it repaired. As hard as you may try, you can’t drive your car without essential (high-priced) gas!
So the 3rd assessment of the mainframe workforce – that there will be a shortage of large systems professionals in the next decade – is what I believe because it’s what I experience and deal with on a daily basis. When I came to work for NEON Enterprise Software, Inc., not only did I significantly reduce the average height of the developers but I also reduced the average age. The situation here is not unlike most ISVs and large corporations that run on the mainframe. I have spoken with companies – banks, retailers, insurance providers, etc. – who all stress the same key point. They need mainframe people now and will need mainframe people in the next 10 years. There is no maybe for these people, there is no go-around - mainframes are key to their business’ success and thus so are mainframers.
How can almost 80% of the world’s business data be securely taken off the mainframe? How can millions of transactions run as efficiently and effectively off the mainframe? Do you want a less than instant response during you next trip to the ATM? Do you want your bank account to be probably secure? Do you want your flight reservations to be unreliable?
So while there are conflicting views about the future of mainframe careers, I truly believe that the current experienced workforce will be tough to replace. There are many articles out there that cover the different mainframe career outlooks. I encourage you to search the web on your own and read them – take them with a grain of salt though. Going out into the mainframe world today will give you a much better perspective on the current circumstances. Check out the staff hallways of ISVs and large mainframe corporations. Call companies that you know are on the mainframe and ask to speak with the youngest mainframe employee. Look up you local colleges and universities to see if any mainframe courses are being offered. …And let me know what you find out!
Also, in the meantime, be sure to check out the upcoming SHARE conference, in Orlando February 23-29. There will be many opportunities to learn more about your mainframe topic of choice and to network with peers and veterans. Register today!
Until next time,
Kristine